The World in 2050

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In March 2006 we produced a report setting out projections for potential growth in GDP in 17 leading economies over the period to 2050. These projections were updated in March 2008 and we are now revisiting them again in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

In this paper, we update the GDP forecasts for the G20 economies plus Nigeria and Vietnam. These include the current G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada), plus Spain, Australia and South Korea among the current advanced economies. It also includes the seven largest emerging market economies, which we refer to collectively as the ‘E7’ (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey), as well as South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Vietnam. Our analysis suggests that this group of countries should include the 20 largest economies in the world looking ahead to the middle of this century, although of course there are always considerable uncertainties about any such long-term projections that need to be borne in mind.

1. Summary
2. Introduction
3. Approach
   • PPPs vs. market exchange rates
4. Relative size of economies
   • GDP at PPPs projections
   • GDP at MERs projections
   • The Indian growth tiger
   • Dominance of Big 3 economies
5. Projected economic growth rates to 2050
6. Comparison of GDP per capita levels
7. Conclusions and implications for business
8. About the authors
9. Economics