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Tariffs. Geopolitical tensions. And turning points
South Africa’s path to business model reinvention
South African businesses find themself at a critical juncture—one shaped by global shifts but defined by the power of reinvention. Trade tensions are rising globally. Tariffs are taking their toll on the economy. The future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is uncertain. And key industries, such as automotive, agriculture and manufacturing are under pressure due to reduced export competitiveness, rising input costs and uncertainty in global trade relationships. This is more than a crisis—it’s a turning point, offering South African businesses a chance to innovate, adapt and lead in a changing global landscape. South Africa has the chance to forge new economic paths through: Bold innovation. Strategic diplomacy. And sweeping business transformation.
Can South African business reinvent itself amid US trade pressure?
The recent imposition of tariffs on South African exports to the US has jolted the country’s trade landscape, threatening key sectors and testing the resilience of its export-oriented economic growth strategy. The US is South Africa’s second largest trading partner after China and a key market for exported metals, manufactured goods and agricultural products.
While the headlines have focused on diplomatic overtures—most notably President Cyril Ramaphosa’s high-level visit to Washington in May—the real story lies in how South Africa is positioning itself to adapt, evolve and lead through this period of global trade uncertainty.
At stake is more than just preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—a trade programme that provides South African exporters with duty-free access to US markets. The US tariffs expose structural vulnerabilities in South Africa’s export economy, particularly in agriculture and automotive manufacturing. These sectors—long reliant on favourable trade terms—now face the prospect of diminished competitiveness in one of their most important markets. The challenge is not only to preserve existing advantages but to build a more agile and diversified trade model.
In response, South Africa is embracing a multi-dimensional strategy. While diplomacy remains a critical tool—evidenced by Ramaphosa’s direct engagement with President Donald Trump and the inclusion of key ministers, business leaders and labour representatives in the SA delegation—the government is also accelerating domestic reforms. Investments in industrial modernisation, infrastructure upgrades and trade diversification are gaining momentum. These efforts aim to reduce dependency on any single market and to future-proof the economy against geopolitical shocks.
The shift is as philosophical as practical. South Africa is beginning to reframe trade not as a static set of agreements, but as a dynamic arena where innovation, competitiveness and strategic alliances determine long-term success. This includes exploring new markets in Asia and Latin America, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and fostering public-private partnerships to drive export readiness.
President Ramaphosa’s US visit, then, is best understood not as the centrepiece of South Africa’s response, but as one element in a broader, forward-looking strategy. Whether or not AGOA benefits are preserved, the country’s ability to adapt to shifting trade winds will depend on its willingness to reinvent itself—through smart policy, resilient industries and a bold vision for global engagement.
For South African companies, the outcomes of SA-US talks could shape access to critical export markets and influence long-term investment decisions. As negotiations evolve, businesses should prepare for multiple scenarios—while also exploring new growth opportunities through regional trade and strategic diversification.
Who says disruption can’t drive business innovation?
Tariffs are forcing a necessary shift for South African businesses. This is a moment to rethink how and where value is created and how enterprises can reinvent themselves to achieve this. Reinvention means moving beyond traditional models—diversifying markets, embracing new technologies and aligning with emerging demands. It's not just about weathering change, but using it to build smarter, more resilient businesses ready for what’s next.
This is where business model reinvention (BMR) becomes essential. BMR provides the strategic response for business leaders: a framework for redesigning how their companies create, deliver and capture value in this new reality. By identifying new areas of growth, businesses can move beyond traditional sector boundaries to meet core societal needs. This approach not only builds company resilience in the face of global disruptions but also positions South African enterprises to lead in shaping the continent’s economic future.
PwC’s Value in Motion approach provides the strategic lens for change, while BMR delivers the actionable framework. Together, they enable South African businesses to respond decisively to rising tariffs and global trade shifts—by rethinking how value is created, delivered and captured. This approach helps organisations move beyond traditional sector boundaries, unlock new growth opportunities, and build resilience in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.
Rethinking trade, rebuilding supply chains
In this trade-disrupted environment, South African businesses must now reimagine their supply chains. This means investing in digital capabilities, adopting integrated planning systems and embracing ecosystem thinking. By doing so, businesses can enhance visibility, enable data-driven decision-making, and build agile, customer-centric operations.
Aligned with PwC’s Value in Motion concept, this transformation is not just about responding to global volatility—it’s about using it as a catalyst to unlock new sources of value. Companies that act decisively will be better positioned to lead in a world where resilience, adaptability and innovation are the new currencies of success.
Will South Africa rethink work and policy in time?
The ripple effects of tariff changes extend beyond trade and supply chains—they are reshaping South Africa’s workforce and fiscal landscape. Export-reliant sectors that employ large numbers of young and low-skilled workers are under pressure, with job losses and reduced hiring on the horizon. This will pressure fiscal revenues and increase demands for government social spending. At the same time, the potential exclusion from AGOA threatens to erode competitiveness and strain public finances through reduced tax revenues.
This disruption also presents a moment to rethink workforce strategies and policy responses. Business model reinvention calls for investment in reskilling, scenario planning, and digital transformation. It means preparing workers for new roles in trade policy, digital supply chain management, and legal advisory—laying the foundation for a more inclusive and future-ready employment landscape.
A call to action: Rethink capabilities. Reskill workforces. Reinvent value
Navigating the complexity of tariff volatility requires more than reactive measures—it calls for bold, forward-thinking leadership. For South African businesses, especially those with pan-African or global footprints, business model reinvention means reconfiguring supply chains to reduce reliance on high-tariff markets, investing in workforce reskilling, and embedding scenario planning into strategic decision-making.
By broadening supplier networks, negotiating smarter contracts, and leveraging technology to drive efficiency, businesses can not only mitigate risk but also create new economic opportunities. Leaders who can translate global complexity into actionable strategies, while keeping people at the centre, will be the ones to shape South Africa’s next chapter of inclusive and sustainable growth.
Explore our insights into how evolving tariff regimes are reshaping South Africa’s economic landscape—driving shifts in workforce dynamics, accelerating the need for supply chain resilience and prompting a re-evaluation of fiscal and trade policy.
References
United States Trade Representative - African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
World Trade Organization (WTO)
PwC Global - PwC Global Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey 2024
TradeMap
Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (South Africa)
Moneyweb
Mail & Guardian
ZAWYA
MSN Markets - Tariffs’ Direction Is Now Clear: How the New Economy Will Look
BusinessLive – US tariffs cancel out AGOA, say Tau and Lamola
News24 – SA likely to keep AGOA status because US companies are benefitting
MSN - Ramaphosa's US Visit: Steenhuisen joins delegation 'to save AGOA'
Jacaranda fm - Presidency says talks with Trump aim to salvage trade
IOL- Ramaphosa's US Visit: Steenhuisen joins delegation 'to save AGOA'
Authors
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