What COP28 could mean for Africa

COP28 will bring together nation states, the private sector, NGOs and civil society to keep pushing for more action on climate change. The following blog series, which will be released over the next two weeks, will unpack what this could mean for Africa in light of the COP themes, Megatrends and the Global Stocktake, and will include key takeaways from our team on the ground at the COP negotiations.

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, more commonly referred to as COP28, brings together global leaders, experts, impacted communities and decision-makers to continue efforts aimed at solving the world’s climate challenges.

The COP28 event programme seeks to unite attendees and diverse stakeholders around specific solutions that must be scaled up this decade to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and reduce the impacts of climate change.

The pace of change needed is changing year on year, with recent research showing that a 17.2% annual decarbonisation rate is needed up to 2050, if we are to limit global warming to 1.5°C. This is a huge and complex undertaking, and the upcoming discussions in Dubai will touch on four cross-cutting themes to try and scale this action, specifically around:

• technology and innovation;
• inclusion;
• finance; and
• frontline communities. 

COP28’s cross-cutting themes align strongly with global Megatrends

PwC has been working with organisations around the four cross-cutting and other related themes through the lens of PwC’s Megatrends: climate change, technological disruption, demographic shifts, a fracturing world and social instability. We recognise that COP28’s cross-cutting themes align strongly with these Megatrends and it is very timely that these themes are a focal point of this year’s conference, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Our view on alignment between COP28 cross-cutting themes and PwC’s Megatrends 

COP 28 cross-cutting theme

Global demographic change is creating pressure on some countries’ social systems, including a lack of workers in critical areas, skyrocketing un- and under-employment, weakening economies from emigrating citizens and strain on social safety nets. 

In Africa, climate change is likely to exacerbate these challenges, including the gap in skills needed to support the green transition and the adaptation measures needed to build resilience against future impacts. African countries, like many other developing nations in other parts of the world, need climate finance to support their transition and build adaptation resilience.

COP 28 cross-cutting theme

Technology and innovation are disrupting the global economy at an increasingly rapid pace. One only needs to think about the recent rise in generative AI, in platforms such as ChatGPT, and the impacts this is having on existing professions. 

Climate technology and innovation has been growing over recent years but will need to be scaled rapidly to support the global transition to net zero by 2050. This includes technology around early warning systems, carbon capture and storage, efficiency improvements and technologies to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors.

Africa has a unique role to play in this, and has a record of demonstrating ingenuity. However, some hurdles will need to be overcome to tap into this ingenuity and unlock further technological solutions.

COP 28 cross-cutting theme

The increasing risk in global supply chains and concerns about dependencies on critical resources are making countries shift their attention towards strengthening their own resilience. This shift is reflected in a preference for local solutions and priorities. Countries are focusing on building internal capacity and structuring their trade around geopolitical allies, similar to the creation of trade blocs, which will further shift power structures. Although this “local first” approach is beneficial in many areas, nations that rely on global trading partners for imports and exports will struggle with massive challenges that can be addressed only at a global level — especially climate change. Global cooperation in those areas needs to be maintained and strengthened.

COP 28 cross-cutting theme

Social issues are becoming more prevalent and pernicious across the world and will increasingly challenge the decisions people make about their lives. Disruption from climate change and other significant events will continue to grow, and will increase the gap between those individuals, communities, organisations and nations that can adapt and those that cannot, specifically in terms of frontline communities. Governments, such as those in Africa that are already weighed down by pandemic debt, slow economic growth and inflation, will be especially at risk of not being able to adapt and meet the climate needs of their frontline communities.

It is now clear that the Megatrends have transformed our world faster than we previously imagined. We need to continue to scale the efforts to respond to these trends, challenges and opportunities, and Africa is no exception to this.

Upcoming blog series

In the next two weeks, our blog series will explore various themes and Megatrends in the context of Africa’s current climate and sustainability challenges. We’ll also discuss our expectations for COP28 and track progress in these areas.