Africa Entertainment and Media Outlook 2026–2030

Video is expanding across screens, while mobile is bringing gaming within reach of more consumers.

Over-the-top (OTT) video is one of the fastest-growing E&M categories in South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria. However, rapid streaming growth does not mean the immediate replacement of traditional television.

South Africa is experiencing the clearest reallocation of video revenue, with OTT growing while traditional television declines. In Kenya and Nigeria, both categories continue to grow. Traditional television is therefore expected to remain the larger video segment in all three markets through 2030.

OTT grows faster but remains below traditional TV through 20230

Affordability will continue to shape streaming growth. Average OTT revenue per subscription in 2030 is forecast at US$76 in South Africa, US$54 in Kenya, and US$42 in Nigeria, compared with a global average above US$100. Pricing, bundling, advertising-supported models, and flexible content propositions will remain central to market development.

Gaming follows a similarly accessible path. Gaming revenue is forecast to grow faster than the global market in all three countries, reaching US$698m (R12.7bn) in South Africa, US$133m in Kenya, and US$431m in Nigeria by 2030. Smartphones allow consumers to participate without a console or dedicated gaming computer, while connecting gaming with social interaction, payments, commerce, and wider media consumption. In Nigeria, social and casual games represented 77% of gaming revenue in 2025.

Digital engagement is strengthening audience discovery, but it is not replacing the demand for collective entertainment.

Streaming, social media, short-form video, and audio services increasingly help audiences discover films, artists, events, and cultural experiences. These channels can extend engagement before, during, and after an event, connecting physical participation with a wider digital audience relationship.

Cinema revenue is forecast to increase from US$24m (R757m) to US$59m (R1.1bn) in South Africa, from US$5m to US$8m in Kenya, and from US$10m to US$29m in Nigeria. Nigeria records the strongest growth at 22.8% a year, although cinema remains a relatively small category in absolute terms. Local films accounted for almost half of Nigeria’s box-office revenue in 2025.

South Africa’s music, radio, and podcasts market is also forecast to grow from R8.0bn in 2025 to R10.6bn in 2030. Audio can draw audiences into wider entertainment ecosystems encompassing live events, sponsorship, creator communities, social engagement, and commerce. 

The commercial value of shared experiences therefore extends beyond ticket or box-office revenue. Sponsorship, tourism, hospitality, retail, transportation, and merchandise can all benefit from sustained audience engagement.

The next phase of E&M growth will increasingly be shaped by who owns, understands, and sustains the audience relationship.

Technology is lowering barriers to content creation, allowing more creators, publishers, podcasters, and independent production companies to participate. Distribution, however, remains concentrated among platforms that influence content discovery, audience access, advertising delivery, and creator revenue.

Media businesses and creators will need to build assets they can control, including intellectual property, trusted brands, direct customer relationships, first-party data, and multiple routes to market. These assets create greater control over how audiences are reached, understood, and monetised.

AI can support this shift by improving translation, subtitling, localisation, content discovery, recommendation, audience segmentation, campaign optimisation, and production workflows. These applications are particularly relevant in markets where linguistic diversity and fragmented audiences can limit content reach. 

The value of AI will not be determined by how much content it produces, but by whether that content becomes more relevant, discoverable, and commercially valuable. Copyright, licensing, attribution, source verification, misinformation, privacy, bias, and brand safety will require clear accountability and human oversight.